Rec
Recession Timing
Topic
N/A
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 16
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
The exact timing of the next recession is unknown, but it is predicted to happen between 2025 and 2030.
"we don't know if we're going to see a recession in 2025 or 2030 but we know that a recession will ha..."
Mar 6, 2025
Pending
The lag effect of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes suggests a recession is nearing, approximately two years after the rate hikes began.
"given that it's been roughly 2 years since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates we're ..."
May 19, 2024
Pending
Recessions tend to occur when the general public is not anticipating them, rather than when widespread predictions are being made.
"recessions don't happen when everybody's predicting a recession to happen recessions generally happe..."
Mar 20, 2024
Pending
A recession is predicted to occur approximately 11 months after the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates. Based on the last rate hike in July 2023 and the expectation of no further hikes, a recession is anticipated around June 2024.
"on average it has taken us roughly 11 months after the FED stopped raising the federal fund rate to ..."
Oct 23, 2023
Pending
If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates one last time in November, the recession would likely be delayed until October 2024.
"if that CME fed watch tool is wrong and they will raise the rate on November 1st that will probably ..."
Oct 23, 2023
Pending
On average, a recession occurs approximately 15 months after the yield curve inverts.
"going back to 1978 it takes about 15 months on average for the economy to enter a recession after th..."
Sep 10, 2023
Pending
There is a 57% probability of a recession beginning by late December 2023, and over a 95% probability by late July 2024.
"there's a 57 chance that a recession will start on or before late December 2023 and there's more tha..."
Apr 10, 2023
Pending
A recession appears inevitable by late 2024.
"so it really does look like a recession is pretty much inevitable by late 2024"
Apr 10, 2023
Pending
The speaker points to a graph demonstrating that recessions (gray bars) historically occur before unemployment rates spike.
"see those gray bars right there that's where the recessions are and if you follow the trend of this ..."
Jul 25, 2022
Pending
The speaker asserts that unemployment rates are not a leading indicator of a recession, as recessions precede spikes in unemployment.
"unemployment rates are not a leading indicator of a recession because a recession happens first and ..."
Jul 25, 2022
Pending
The speaker predicts that the BEA will release their advance estimate for Q2 on July 28th at 8:30 AM, which will determine if the US is in a recession, with the likely outcome being yes.
"on july 28th at 8:30 a.m the bureau of economic analysis will finally release their advance estimate..."
Jul 1, 2022
Pending
The official determination of whether a recession has begun will be made on July 28th, when the BEA releases its second-quarter advance estimate.
"june 29th will not tell us whether we're in a recession or not but here's exactly when we'll find ou..."
Jun 10, 2022
Pending
If the GDP is positive (meaning no recession in the current period), the earliest a recession could occur would be at the end of the current year or the beginning of the next year.
"but i will say this if it turns out that the gdp is positive then that's a good thing because at tha..."
Jun 10, 2022
Pending
Recessions typically begin after periods of peak market euphoria, not peak fear.
"the beginning of a recession is usually after peak euphoria not after peak fear"
May 13, 2022
Pending
Due to the lagged effect of monetary policy (12-24 months), the full impact of recent rate hikes will be felt, potentially leading to a recession, by early 2023.
"economists estimate that it takes anywhere between 12 to 24 months for monetary policy to be felt in..."
Apr 22, 2022
Pending
Historically, when the 3-year and 10-year treasury yields have inverted for over 10 days, a recession has followed on average 311 days later.
"when the three-year 10-year treasury yield inverts for more than 10 days it took an average of 311 d..."
Feb 4, 2022
Pending